THE FUNNEL: Understanding the Real Numbers in Youth Baseball

Charles D'Amico
Aug 9
5 min read

Every August, as the Little League World Series plays on TV, a stat circulates online and in youth baseball circles: “Only 8% of high school baseball players will play in college.” Sometimes it’s worded even scarier — “Your kid has less than a 1% chance of playing pro ball.”

It’s not that these numbers are “wrong.” They’re technically true… but they’re also incomplete. And when parents and coaches take them at face value, they can create unnecessary stress, misplaced priorities, and, ironically, shorten a kid’s baseball journey.

In this first part of our 5-part series, we’re going to break down the baseball pipeline from age 10 to 18 in a way that’s actually useful — not fear-driven. We’ll look at the funnel of participation, show why the math is often misleading, and offer a better framework for understanding your child’s real odds.

Why the Headline Numbers Can Be Misleading

The widely shared “8%” number comes from NCAA research. The calculation is simple:

Take the total number of high school baseball players in the U.S. (about 500,000 each year).
See how many of them go on to play NCAA baseball at any level (about ~40,000).
Divide 40,000 by 500,000 and you get about 8.1%.

But here’s the catch:

That stat only counts NCAA programs. It ignores NAIA schools, junior colleges, and other competitive collegiate leagues.
It lumps together all high school players — including kids who never intended to play in college in the first place.
And it’s often misapplied earlier in the funnel — parents of 10-year-olds hear “8%” and assume their child’s dream is unrealistic before it even gets started.

The Funnel: A Better Way to See the Journey

Instead of one blunt number, think of baseball development as a funnel — wide at the top, narrowing with each stage. At each point, some players will move on and others won’t. The key is that the number of players in the “pool” changes naturally at each step.

Here’s the basic structure:

All youth players at age 10–12 (rec, travel, Little League)
Players who choose to keep playing at 13–14 (middle school, junior high, travel ball)
Players who make a high school roster (varsity or JV)
Players who play college baseball (NCAA, NAIA, JUCO)
Players who play pro ball (MiLB, MLB, independent)

The Middle School Filter: Where the Numbers Shift

One of the biggest distortions in the way people use statistics comes from the middle school filter.

By the time kids hit 13–14 years old:

Puberty changes everything — size, strength, coordination.
They get a voice in what sports (if any) they want to continue.
Specialization pressures increase — especially from travel ball programs.
Other interests compete for time (football, basketball, band, academics, social life).

Data from the Aspen Institute’s Project Play and the Sports & Fitness Industry Association shows that most kids quit organized sports by age 11. That means if you’re looking at a pool of 12U players, you’re counting a lot of kids who were never going to try out for high school baseball in the first place.

If we remove those “one-and-done” or “moving on” players and focus only on the committed pool — kids who actively choose to keep playing into their teens — the math changes drastically.

Running the Numbers: Committed vs. All Players

Let’s start with some rough national estimates:

All 12U players: 4.2 million (ages 6–12 combined, but roughly 700–800k in the 12U bracket at any time).
Players still competing at 13–14: About 50% remain — that’s a natural attrition rate based on multiple participation studies.

If we treat that “committed pool” as the real starting point for tracking odds:

Committed pool → HS roster: 25–30% (higher in smaller schools, lower in baseball hotbeds).
HS roster → College baseball (NCAA + NAIA + JUCO): 11–12% nationally (when we include the schools NCAA leaves out).
HS roster → NCAA only: 8.1%.

What This Looks Like in a Funnel

Let’s visualize it:

All-Participants Funnel (media version)

100% — All 12U players (rec, travel, LL)
↓ (Massive middle school attrition)
~12% — Make HS roster
↓
~8% of HS → NCAA only (≈ 1% of all 12U players)

Committed-Players Funnel (realistic for engaged kids)

100% — Committed 12U players (still playing at 13–14)
↓
25–30% — Make HS roster
↓
11–12% of HS → College (any level)
Net: 2.8–3.6% of committed 12U players reach some college roster

Those numbers are still selective, but they’re a far cry from the fear-driven “1% chance” narrative parents often hear.

Why This Matters for Parents

When you understand the funnel, you stop obsessing over the narrow end when your child is still at the wide top.

At 10–12, your job isn’t to push toward a college offer — it’s to keep the funnel wide. That means keeping baseball fun, keeping kids healthy, and developing broad athletic skills.
The middle school years are the real “make or break” — not in talent, but in whether a kid wants to keep going.
High school baseball is more accessible than people think in many communities — especially outside hotbeds.

Hotbeds vs. Roster-Thin Schools

Another layer to the odds: where you live matters.

In baseball hotbeds (Florida, Texas, California), competition for HS roster spots is fierce. Schools may cut talented players simply because there’s not enough space.
In roster-thin areas, coaches may actively recruit athletes from other sports to fill teams. Players who stay committed, even if they aren’t elite at 14, often have a clear path to making a HS roster.

This means your child’s actual odds could be better or worse than the national averages — but if they love the game and keep developing, geography doesn’t have to be a barrier.

Key Takeaways for Parents

Don’t panic over national stats — they’re broad averages that don’t tell your child’s story.
The middle school filter is real — the biggest drop-off happens before high school, and it’s usually about interest, not ability.
Commitment and joy matter more than size at 12 — especially with late bloomers.
College baseball has more doors than you think — NAIA and JUCO are real opportunities that often lead to NCAA programs.
Your role is to keep the funnel wide — protect health, nurture love of the game, and help them develop well-rounded skills.

Closing Thought

If we’re going to use statistics, let’s use them responsibly. Numbers can either be a source of fear or a tool for clarity. At 806 Drive, our mission is to replace the fear with understanding — to show parents that the journey from age 10 to 18 is about development, not deadlines.

If your child is still playing, still healthy, and still smiling at 14, they’re already beating the odds that matter most. From there, the funnel will do its job — and your role is to help them enjoy every inning along the way.