The Odds Are Against You — But That’s the Point

It's a game of unfavorable odds - Didn't you know that? Baseball has always been a numbers game. We measure everything: batting averages, spin rates, launch angles, exit velocities, win probabilities. Numbers help us explain the game, but sometimes the game writes a story that statistics can barely account for.

This past Saturday, Dodgers fans saw one of those stories unfold. Yoshinobu Yamamoto was standing on the mound, two outs in the ninth, and history within reach. He hadn’t given up a hit all game. The Dodgers were up 3–0. ESPN’s win probability model said the Dodgers had a 99.6% chance of victory. In other words, the Orioles’ odds of winning were about 1 in 250. If you’re the type who trusts the math, you could already start walking to the parking lot.

But baseball isn’t math.

Jackson Holliday stepped up and launched a home run into the right-field seats, breaking up the no-hitter with one strike to go. The Dodgers turned to their bullpen, and in the blink of an eye the Orioles snatched a walk-off victory. Final score: Orioles 4, Dodgers 3.

It was only the second time in the expansion era — more than 60 years — that a team carried a no-hitter into the ninth with two outs, led by multiple runs, and still lost. Baseball historians had to dust off their notes to find the other one.

You could call it a collapse. Or you could call it a reminder: improbable does not mean impossible.

The Iron Man Standard

That game happened on a night the Orioles were honoring Cal Ripken Jr.’s streak — 30 years since he passed Lou Gehrig’s record by playing his 2,131st consecutive game. Ripken went on to extend the record to 2,632 games before finally sitting himself in 1998.

To put that in perspective, Miguel Tejada — the closest “modern” challenger — played in 1,152 consecutive games. That’s less than half of Ripken’s mark. Today, the longest active streak belongs to Matt Olson of the Braves. He’s played in about 746 consecutive games. Impressive, sure. But he would need another 1,886 games just to tie Ripken. That’s about 12 full seasons of never missing a game, never taking a rest day, never landing on the injured list.

Olson would have to do it until he was 43, still starting at first base every single day. In today’s baseball culture of “load management” and “scheduled rest days,” the odds are stacked against him.

And yet — Ripken did it.

Beating the Pipeline Odds

It’s the same story kids hear when they dream about making the big leagues. The odds of going from Little League to varsity? Slim. From high school to college ball? Slimmer. From college to the draft? Minuscule. From the minors to a sustained MLB career? Practically microscopic.

And yet — every player who has ever stepped onto a Major League diamond has beaten those odds.

I’ve written before about that journey, about how easy it is to look at the pipeline as one long roadblock. Parents see it. Kids feel it. Coaches know it. You can get caught staring at the numbers and deciding it’s not worth chasing.

But every day, 750 players suit up in the big leagues. They’re living proof that while the odds are unlikely, they are not impossible.

The Broader Lens

Here’s another way to think about it.

Major League Baseball plays 2,430 games every regular season. That’s 2,430 chances for something rare to unfold. That’s 2,430 opportunities for someone to toss a no-hitter, hit for the cycle, turn an unassisted triple play, or, yes, blow a 99.6% win probability.

Every team plays 162 games. For Cal Ripken, that meant 162 opportunities a year to keep his streak alive. He didn’t focus on “2,632.” He focused on showing up that day, being ready to play that night.

That’s the math worth leaning into.

Focus Forward

Because here’s the truth: if a surfer looks down at the wave, he wipes out. If a pilot stares at the mountain, he crashes into it. If a hitter steps in thinking about striking out, he already has.

The Dodgers’ bullpen failed on Saturday because baseball has failure baked into it. Ripken succeeded for 16 years because he never let failure become the focus. He kept his eyes on the horizon.

Simon Sinek says pilots don’t look at the mountain — they look past it, toward where they want to go. The same is true in sports, in business, in life.

When you worry about what can go wrong, you get stuck in what has already gone wrong. When you focus on where you’re headed, you give yourself a chance to stay balanced and ride it out.

The Leadership Lesson for Us

For parents watching 11- and 12-year-olds grow up on the baseball diamond, this is where it connects.

Your kid will strike out. He’ll boot a ground ball. He’ll get benched. He’ll face numbers that tell him he probably won’t make varsity, let alone college, let alone the pros.

But numbers don’t decide who they become. How they focus does.

Our job is to remind them that every game is a new opportunity. Every practice, every rep, every swing is a chance to add one more to their streak. If they look down at the wave, they’ll stumble. If they look to the horizon, they just might discover how far they can go.

Closing Thoughts

Saturday’s Dodgers–Orioles game gave us a picture of how fragile victory can be. Cal Ripken’s streak gave us a picture of how enduring consistency can be. Both are rare, both are unlikely, both live on the razor’s edge of probability.

But in a sport with 2,430 games a year, improbable things will happen. They’ve happened before. They’ll happen again. The question isn’t whether the odds are against you — the question is whether you’ll keep your eyes on the horizon when they are.

That’s where streaks are built. That’s where comebacks are made. That’s where kids grow into ballplayers, and ballplayers grow into leaders.